$50 → $155 → $12. Our first Kalshi run, visualized.
What We Learned
⏳
Edges are temporary. Our 85% win rate lasted exactly 3 days before the market adapted.
🎯
Signal quality ≠ execution edge. Model can be 94% accurate and still lose money if the market already priced it in.
🏗️
Infrastructure outlasts edges. The 12 modules we built will serve us when the next opportunity comes.
📊
Follow the base rate. We were betting NO 97% of the time when YES wins 60%. The market was right; we were fighting it.
🧊
Stop digging. Every "fix" after Feb 10 made things worse. Sometimes the best trade is no trade.