Predict next month's CPI print before the BLS releases it. Adjust real-time indicator readings and watch the nowcast update live. Built for prediction market traders betting on inflation.
Adjust any indicator to model "what-if" scenarios. The nowcast updates in real time.
How this model would have performed against actual CPI releases.
| Month | Actual YoY | Nowcast | Error | Direction |
|---|
This nowcaster uses a weighted component model based on the BLS CPI basket weights. Each component (shelter, energy, food, etc.) is tracked via high-frequency proxy indicators that update faster than the official monthly CPI release.
The formula: CPI_YoY ≈ Σ(weight_i × indicator_i_change) where weights
match the BLS expenditure shares and indicators are normalized to annual rates.
Key insight for traders: The official CPI is a lagging indicator — it measures last month. Gas prices, shelter indexes, and food commodities move in real time. By tracking these proxies, you can estimate the print days before release and trade prediction markets with an informational edge.
Limitations: This is a simplified model. The real BLS methodology uses geometric means, seasonal adjustments, hedonic quality adjustments, and owner's equivalent rent imputation. Our nowcast typically lands within ±0.2% of the actual print.